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                            <h1 class="post-title" itemprop="name headline">技术的热门度曲线</h1>
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                                <p>
                                    Written by <a itemprop="name" href="/about.me.html" rel="author">Akkuman</a> with ♥ on <time datetime="1489296841" itemprop="datePublished"></time> in <a href="/tag/life/index.html">life </a>
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                                <p>全球最大的 IT 咨询公司<a href="http://baike.baidu.com/item/Gartner">高德纳</a>（Gartner），有一个&rdquo;<a href="http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp">技术热门度曲线</a>&ldquo;模型（Gartner Hype Cycle）。</p>

<p>该模型认为，一门技术的发展要经历五个阶段。</p>

<p><img src="" data-src="https://ooo.0o0.ooo/2017/03/12/58c4de8267e76.png" alt="bg2017030301.png" /></p>

<ol>
<li><p><strong>启动期（Innovation Trigger）</strong>
该技术刚刚诞生，还只是一个概念，不具有可用性，无法评估商业潜力。媒体有所报道，引起了外界的兴趣。</p></li>

<li><p><strong>泡沫期（Peak of Inflated Expectations）</strong>
该技术逐步成型，出现了个别成功的案例，一些激进的公司开始跟进。媒体开始大肆报导，伴有各种非理性的渲染，产品的知名度达到高峰。</p></li>

<li><p><strong>低谷期（Trough of Disillusionment）</strong>
该技术的局限和缺点逐步暴露，对它的兴趣开始减弱。基于它的产品，大部分被市场淘汰或者失败，只有那些找到早期用户的公司艰难地活了下来。媒体对它的报道逐步冷却，前景不明。</p></li>

<li><p><strong>爬升期（Slope of Enlightenment）</strong>
该技术的优缺点越来越明显，细节逐渐清晰，越来越多的人开始理解它。基于它的第二代和第三代产品出现，更多的企业开始尝试，可复制的成功使用模式出现。媒体重新认识它，业界这一次给予了高度的理性的关注。</p></li>

<li><p><strong>高原期（Plateau of Productivity）</strong>
经过不断发展，该技术慢慢成为了主流。技术标准得到了清晰定义，使用起来越发方便好用，市场占有率越来越高，进入稳定应用阶段。配合它的工具和最佳实践，经过数代的演进，也变得非常成熟了。业界对它有了公认的一致的评价。</p></li>
</ol>

<p>该模型的细节可以查看维基百科的<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle#/media/File:Hype-Cycle-General.png">大图</a>。</p>

<p>高德纳公司每年都会公布，当年的热门技术图。下面就是去年七月的图。</p>

<p><img src="" data-src="https://ooo.0o0.ooo/2017/03/12/58c4df3436d4e.png" alt="bg2017030302.png" /></p>

<p>上图中，4D打印处于&rdquo;启动期&rdquo;，区块链处于&rdquo;泡沫期&rdquo;，增强现实处于&rdquo;低谷期&rdquo;，虚拟现实处于爬升期。</p>

<p>本周，有人进行数据分析后，建立了一个名叫 <a href="https://stateofdev.com/">State.of.Dev</a> 的网站，提供各种技术的热门程度图。</p>

<p>下图是编程语言。</p>

<p><img src="" data-src="https://ooo.0o0.ooo/2017/03/12/58c4df61bd060.png" alt="bg2017030303.png" /></p>

<p>上图中，Rust 语言处于启动期，Go 语言处于泡沫期，Ruby 语言处于低谷期，Object-C 处于爬升期，PHP 和 Java 处于高原期。</p>

<p>下图是 Web 技术。</p>

<p><img src="" data-src="https://ooo.0o0.ooo/2017/03/12/58c4df7a78ea1.png" alt="bg2017030305.png" /></p>

<p>上图中，WebAssembly 处于启动期，WebRTC 处于低谷期，HTTPS 处于高原期。</p>

<p>一门技术到底前景如何，很难预测，但是它的热门程度却是可以衡量的（比如在社交媒体提及次数的增长幅度）。风险投资跟热门程度高度正相关，越热门的技术越容易拿到投资。</p>

<p>用户可以采用这张图，判断技术处在哪一个阶段，确定它的热门程度。简单的使用规则如下。</p>

<blockquote>
<p><strong>&ldquo;争取风险投资，要选择热门的技术；解决实际问题， 要选择可靠的技术。&rdquo;</strong></p>
</blockquote>

<p>简单说，处于启动期的技术，风险很大，不确定性极高，但是一旦成功，回报可能也很高，适合创业公司；处于高原期的技术，非常可靠，风险低，有成熟的解决方案和配套工具，适合大公司和企业的内部应用。</p>

<p>反过来说，如果一门技术处于高原期了，就代表它非常成熟了，人们对它能干什么和不能干什么，都已经很了解了，也没有新的期待了，技术本身的潜力已经不大了，所以用它拿不到投资，只能用来干活。</p>

<p>（完）</p>

<p><strong>转载自<a href="http://www.ruanyifeng.com/blog/2017/03/gartner-hype-cycle.html">阮一峰的网络日志</a></strong></p>

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